The US Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes October nonfarm payrolls tomorrow, Friday, at 1:30pm UK time. The report counts net jobs added outside farming, alongside the unemployment rate and wage growth. It turns on whether hiring recovers from a weak September. That matters because the Federal Reserve held its rate at 3.75%-4.00% on the 28th of October, and the print is a read on how close it is to cutting.
Key points
- Release at 1:30pm UK time tomorrow
- September payrolls rose only 29,000
- Forecast for October: 65,000 jobs
- Unemployment forecast to hold at 4.2%
- Fed holds range of 3.75%-4.00%
What the last reading showed
September’s gain of 29,000 fell 61,000 short of the 90,000 forecast. The BLS set it against the longer run in its own release:
Total nonfarm payroll employment changed little in September (+29,000), following an average monthly gain of 45,000 over the prior 12 months.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
September was therefore below a 12-month average that was already modest. Unemployment, the share of the labour force without a job, stood at 4.2%. The BLS said the rate has stayed in a narrow range of 4.1% to 4.3% since March.
What to expect
The forecast for October is a gain of 65,000 jobs, above both September’s reading and the 12-month average of 45,000. Unemployment is forecast to hold at 4.2%. Average hourly earnings, the measure of wage growth, are forecast to rise 2.9% on the year, down from 3.0%, with a monthly rise of 0.3% against 0.1% previously. A surprise is measured against the 65,000 forecast.
| Indicator | Previous | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm payrolls | 29,000 | 65,000 |
| Unemployment rate | 4.2% | 4.2% |
| Average hourly earnings, yoy | 3.0% | 2.9% |
| Average hourly earnings, mom | 0.1% | 0.3% |
For a UK trader the print moves the dollar, US equities and GBP/USD, the pound against the dollar. GBP/USD was quoted at 1.3452 on Thursday evening in a delayed quote, below the previous close of 1.34715.
What to watch
- The headline payroll figure against 65,000, and whether it clears September’s gain.
- Average hourly earnings: the monthly figure against the 0.3% forecast, and the annual rate against 2.9%.
- The unemployment rate: a move outside the 4.1% to 4.3% range seen since March would be a break from the recent pattern.