Walmart Stock Dips As Analysts Continue To Shuffle Price Targets

Walmart's stock (WMT) is 2.6% lower today, as it finds itself at the center of a divided analyst community following its fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings report. The print delivered strong operational results but paired them with forward guidance that fell short of market expectations, prompting a wave of price target adjustments and one notable downgrade amid otherwise bullish sentiment.

The analyst community's response has been largely constructive, with the majority maintaining or upgrading their bullish stance even as valuation concerns begin to surface.

Walmart's fourth-quarter performance exceeded expectations on both comparable sales and earnings metrics, demonstrating the retail giant's ability to capture market share across demographic segments.

The company reported particularly strong gains among households earning over $100,000 annually, a trend that Goldman Sachs highlighted as evidence of Walmart's expanding appeal beyond its traditional customer base. Operating income growth outpaced revenue gains, signaling improved operational efficiency and margin expansion.

The company's digital ecosystem showed accelerated momentum, with Walmart Connect posting strong performance that multiple analysts expect to continue. The recent Vizio acquisition is anticipated to amplify this growth trajectory, with expansion planned into the Onn ecosystem, according to Roth Capital's analysis. The retailer also announced a substantial $30 billion share repurchase program alongside dividend increases, moves that underscore management's confidence in long-term value creation.

However, the forward-looking guidance for fiscal 2026 came in below analyst consensus, a development attributed to macroeconomic uncertainties that continue to cloud the retail landscape.

This conservative outlook prompted HSBC to take a contrarian stance, downgrading the stock from Buy to Hold while still raising its price target to $131 from $122. The firm cited a “lack of immediate momentum” and noted that Walmart's historical valuation discount relative to competitor Costco has largely evaporated, reducing the stock's relative attractiveness.

Analyst Perspectives

The analyst community delivered a spectrum of responses, though the predominant tone remained constructive. Roth Capital raised its price target from $108 to $138 while maintaining a Buy rating, acknowledging the guidance disappointment but emphasizing the strength in Walmart Connect's trajectory. Goldman Sachs similarly raised its target to $138 from $121, maintaining its Buy rating and expressing confidence that the company remains “well-positioned for solid earnings growth and continued improvement in profitability.”

Bernstein increased its price target to $134 from $129 with an Outperform rating, characterizing the fiscal 2027 guidance as conservative and recommending that markets view any stock weakness as a buying opportunity. The firm's stance reflects a belief that Walmart's execution will exceed its own projections. Additional bullish calls came from BTIG Research, which raised its target to $140, Telsey at $135, and KeyBanc with the most aggressive target of $145.

The lone dissenting voice came from HSBC, which downgraded the stock to Hold despite raising its price target. The firm reduced its earnings estimates following the print and expressed concern that the “surprisingly weak” fiscal 2026 outlook signals challenges ahead.

The valuation argument carries weight, as Walmart's premium to historical norms has narrowed the gap with warehouse club operator Costco, traditionally valued at a higher multiple.

Walmart emerges from its fourth-quarter earnings cycle with a complex narrative: operational strength and strategic progress offset by conservative guidance and elevated valuation concerns. The preponderance of analyst support, reflected in widespread price target increases, suggests confidence in the company's long-term competitive positioning and ability to navigate uncertainty.

However, HSBC's downgrade serves as a reminder that valuation discipline matters, particularly when forward guidance disappoints and historical discounts to peers evaporate.

Markets will likely scrutinize upcoming quarters for evidence that management's conservative stance proves overly cautious, or whether the lack of immediate momentum signals genuine headwinds that could pressure the now-elevated multiple.