International Airlines Group (LON: IAG) climbed more than 2% to a fresh 52-week high of 465.55p on Monday after Deutsche Bank lifted its price target for the British Airways owner, citing a dramatic fall in jet fuel costs following last week’s US-Iran peace deal.
Analyst Jaime Rowbotham raised his target on buy-rated IAG from 460p to 540p — implying upside of around 16% from current levels — while also lifting targets on Air France-KLM (from €9 to €11) and Deutsche Lufthansa (from €7 to €8), though both continental peers retain “hold” ratings.
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The catalyst is a sharp decline in the forward fuel curve. Brent crude has tumbled from nearly $100 a barrel at the start of June to below $80 following the agreement to end the Middle East conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Deutsche Bank has now marked its unhedged fuel assumptions to $910 per metric tonne for Q3 2026, $875/mt for Q4 2026, and $830/mt for 2027.
For IAG specifically, Deutsche Bank’s revised 2026 fuel bill estimate stands at €8.56 billion — meaningfully below management’s guidance of approximately €9 billion issued in May.
Rowbotham noted that IAG’s previous assumptions had been struck “at the height of the Middle East conflict,” making the airline one of the biggest beneficiaries of the easing geopolitical environment.
IAG shares closed at 465.8p on Monday, up 2.42% on the day, on volume of over 40 million shares.
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