Sainsbury’s Q1 Trading Update Expected to Show Grocery Resilience Amid Non-Food Pressure

Sainsbury’s (LON: SBRY) is expected to report steady grocery market share gains when it publishes its first-quarter trading statement on June 30, though persistent weakness in general merchandise and a challenging comparative backdrop are likely to weigh on overall results, according to Shore Capital.

Analyst Clive Black forecast grocery sales growth of approximately 2.75–3.25% in Q1, with ex-fuel like-for-like revenues up around 2.25–2.75%, supported by roughly 0.5% space contribution.

In a note, Black attributed the expected gains to Sainsbury’s sustained “Food First” strategy under CEO Simon Roberts, the Aldi Price Match initiative, and the Nectar loyalty scheme, which he said has proven “more impactful than we expected.”

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When it comes to non-food products, Shore Capital forecasts Argos sales down 2.5–3.5% amid ongoing weakness in UK consumer confidence, with the GfK consumer confidence index at minus 23 in May.

Tu Clothing is also expected to decline by approximately 2–3%, despite recent improvements in ranging and merchandising, as spring 2026 proved challenging for UK apparel outside of a brief warm spell over the late May bank holiday.

Black said he would be “surprised to see Sainsbury adjust its FY27 underlying EBIT profit guidance” of £975 million to £1.075 billion at this stage, with analyst consensus sitting at £1.061 billion for total underlying operating profit.

The £300 million share buyback commitment and retail free cash flow guidance of more than £500 million are also expected to remain unchanged.

Sainsbury’s shares are down 6.1% year-to-date, trading around 305.4 pence after a 6.7% increase over the last 12 months.