AI Semiconductor Supremacy Battle – NVDA, AVGO, MRVL

The semiconductor sector continues to be at the epicenter of the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution, with NVIDIA (NVDA), Broadcom (AVGO), and Marvell Technology (MRVL) all vying for dominance in their own niche. A shortened trading week appears to be kicking off with each of the above firmly in green territory, although not all has been smooth sailing this year.

As the industry undergoes seismic shifts driven by soaring AI demand, hyperscale data center expansion, and relentless innovation in custom silicon and connectivity, investors are scrutinizing every earnings report, partnership announcement, and product launch for clues about who will emerge as the long-term winner.

NVIDIA (NVDA)

NVIDIA, the undisputed leader in AI data center hardware, remains the benchmark by which all other semiconductor companies are measured. Despite a 5%% pullback YTD, NVIDIA’s stock is trading up 2.5% in this morning's pre-market, and has rebounded 20.75% in the last month. The recent turnaround has erased much of year-to-date losses and reflect renewed investor optimism ahead of its Q1 fiscal 2026 earnings report.

The company’s fiscal 2025 performance was as usual, spectacular, with revenue surging 114% to $130.5 billion and non-GAAP earnings per share jumping 130% year-over-year. NVIDIA’s gross margin guidance for the current quarter stands at a robust 71%, slightly down from the previous quarter’s 73.5%, but still industry-leading.

Since the beginning of the month, analysts such as BofA have raised the firms target price from $150 to $160 and the firm also keeps a “Buy” rating on the shares. UBS have revised the target price the other way, by lowering their target price from $180 to $175, but the firm maintains a “Buy” rating on the shares.

NVIDIA’s CEO Jensen Huang has underscored the company’s strategic focus on AI, citing “billions of dollars” in sales for its new Blackwell AI supercomputers in their first quarter on the market. The company is not content to rest on its laurels, expanding its ecosystem through partnerships, most notably with Marvell, to deliver custom AI infrastructure solutions for hyperscalers.

Broadcom (AVGO)

Broadcom’s strength lies in its deep relationships with hyperscale cloud providers such as Google, Meta, and ByteDance, as well as rumored collaborations with Apple and OpenAI.

The company’s custom AI accelerators and silicon solutions are increasingly vital to these tech giants’ ambitious AI roadmaps. Investment banks continue to reiterate “outperform” ratings, underscoring confidence in Broadcom’s management and its ability to capitalize on the ongoing AI-driven transformation of computing infrastructure.

Charting a similar path to Nvidia's stock, Broadcom has added 18.8% over the last month, yet remains mildly negative YTD (-1.41%). Yet, the mood among analysts remains overwhelmingly bullish. With a median price target of $239.25, implying an upside from current levels and 89% of analysts rating the stock a “buy,” Broadcom is seen as a stable, diversified play on the AI boom.

The company’s AI business, though smaller than NVIDIA’s, is roughly equivalent in size to Marvell’s entire operation, and its overall semiconductor business is four times larger than Marvell’s.

Marvell Technology (MRVL)

Marvell Technology may be the smallest of the trio, but it is arguably the most dynamic. The company’s AI-based revenues surpassed $1.5 billion in fiscal 2025, and management expects to “very significantly” exceed its $2.5 billion target in fiscal 2026. Marvell’s strategic partnerships with Amazon Web Services, Google, Meta, and Microsoft for custom silicon and AI accelerators have positioned it as a key enabler of next-generation data centers.

Marvell is also a leader in high-speed optical interconnects, recently introducing the world’s first 1.6T PAM DSP, which reduces optical module power consumption by 20%. The transition from copper to optical connectivity is a critical growth driver as data centers strive for greater efficiency and scalability. Marvell’s collaboration with NVIDIA to deliver custom AI infrastructure further validates its technological prowess and has prompted a bullish response from analysts, despite the stock’s steep 46% year-to-date decline.

Since the start of this month, analysts appear to be lowering and downgrading Marvell shares. Melius research has downgraded MRVL from a “Buy” rating to a “Hold” rating, whilst keeping the target price unchanged at $66. UBS and Roth Capital have followed suit, and both kept a “Buy” rating on the shares.

UBS has lowered the price target on Marvell from $110 to $100 and Roth Capital lowered from $100 to $80. Cantor Fitzgerald seems to go against the grain, and raised the price target for MRVL, from $120 to $135, and keep an Overweight rating on the shares. Cantor's price target change was at the beginning of the month.

🟩 The Bull Cases

🟥 The Bear Cases

The semiconductor industry continues to shift at pace, with AI acting as the principal catalyst for growth and disruption.

NVIDIA remains the clear leader, but Broadcom and Marvell are leveraging their unique strengths, scale and innovation, respectively; to carve out meaningful positions in the AI value chain.

Upcoming earnings, the pace of AI infrastructure deployment, and the evolving web of strategic partnerships will likely be key in determining which of these names fare best.