Allianz SE Shares Gain 30% in 12 Months – What is The Latest Outlook?

Allianz SE shares (ETR: ALV) are holding on to the €350 level, after a 7.5% decline from recent highs (€378.50) set on May 6th. With the share price having gained 30.73% over the past 12 months, the question now turns to what might come next.

Looking to recent financials, Q1 came in mixed, as a revenue beat was somewhat offset by a miss on EPS expectations. Yet, the market’s reaction was relatively muted, as Allianz reaffirmed its €16.0 billion ±€1 billion operating profit target for 2025 and continued its €2 billion share buy-back program.

Let's take a look at the latest drivers for Allianz share price, as well as the outlook on the street.

The company's latest quarterly results underscored its operational strength, with operating profit surging 6.3% year-over-year to a record €4.24 billion. Total business volume jumped 11.7% to €54.0 billion, driven by double-digit growth across all business lines. The Life/Health insurance segment was a standout, posting a 16.8% rise in new business premiums, a testament to Allianz’s ability to capture growing demand for retirement and health solutions in both European and Asian markets.

Core EPS landed at €6.61, falling short of the €6.74 consensus forecast. The shortfall, attributed to a one-time tax provision related to the sale of Allianz’s stake in Indian joint ventures, triggered a brief 2.56% pre-market dip in the stock.

Allianz’s Solvency II ratio remains a fortress at 208%, comfortably above regulatory minimums and demonstrating resilience even amid active capital return initiatives. The ongoing €2 billion share buy-back and a projected 2025 dividend of €15.40 per share (up from €13.80 in 2024) underscore Allianz’s commitment to returning value to shareholders. The company’s revised dividend policy, targeting a 60% payout ratio of adjusted net income, further cements its shareholder-friendly stance.

In an era marked by geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty, Allianz has leaned into innovation and risk mitigation. Dynamic hedging strategies have insulated its Life/Health portfolio from interest rate and equity market swings, while parametric insurance and AI-driven claims processing have bolstered P&C margins. The Asset Management division’s pivot toward private credit and ESG-aligned products reflects an agile response to evolving investor preferences.

Analyst sentiment toward Allianz remains broadly positive, with 13 “Buy,” 11 “Hold,” and only 2 “Sell” recommendations out of 26 tracked. Despite this, the consensus 12-month price target of €356.63 suggests only mild upside from current levels ~€350.

While Allianz’s projected EPS growth of 7.2% lags the DAX average, its return on equity ambitions (17%+ by 2027) and robust dividend yield (5.6%) offer a compelling case for the long-term, offering both income and defensive qualities.

The company's Q1 2025 performance illustrates its ability to generate value amid uncertainty. While the EPS miss and recent share price volatility highlight near-term risks, the company’s robust capital position, shareholder-friendly policies, and strategic diversification underpin its long-term appeal.