Skip to content

AST SpaceMobile Earnings On Deck – What Markets Expect (NASDAQ: ASTS)

Asktraders News Team trader
Updated 12 May 2025

AST SpaceMobile's stock price (NASDAQ: ASTS) is trading positively leading into earnings, with a gain of 6.56% in the pre-market session continuing a rally that has extended to 28% since early April.

The company is scheduled to report its first-quarter 2025 earnings after today's closing bell, with analysts forecasting a year-over-year revenue increase of 766.6% to $4.33 million and an improved EPS of -$0.15 compared to -$0.16 in Q1 2024. This follows a 14.29% earnings surprise in the previous quarter, driven by momentum in government and private-sector contracts.

AST’s stock has been one of the most impressive performers over the past 12 months, as gains of more than 10x (1,050%) can attest. With such sudden appreciation, comes a dose of volatility, and ASTS has certainly obliged.

A critical driver of growth is the company’s partnership with Ligado Networks, granting access to 40 MHz of L-band spectrum in the U.S. and Canada. This collaboration aims to enable data speeds of up to 120 Mbps via AST’s next-generation satellites. Additionally, the SatCo joint venture with Vodafone targets 100% geographic coverage in Europe through a dedicated operations center, aligning with the EU’s digital sovereignty goals. These partnerships underscore AST’s expanding global footprint and potential for recurring revenue from mobile network operators (MNOs).

Looking back at previous reports, and results for Q4 2024 underscored the capital-intensive nature of AST SpaceMobile's business. The company reported a net loss of $171.95 million, more than doubling the previous quarter’s loss of $72.55 million.

This 137% quarter-over-quarter deterioration reflects surging operational costs and intensified R&D as ASTS pushes to commercialize its satellite network. Over the full year, net losses ballooned to $300.1 million, intensifying investor concerns about the company’s path to profitability.

Operational Momentum Proving Critical

Despite these red flags, optimism surrounding the upcoming report is fueled by recent momentum in government and private-sector contracts, including a 14.29% earnings surprise in the previous quarter. However, the company’s ability to translate early contracts into sustainable, recurring revenue remains a key question.

AST SpaceMobile’s strategic alliances have been central to its growth narrative. A landmark partnership with Ligado Networks has secured access to 40 MHz of L-band spectrum in the U.S. and Canada, paving the way for data speeds up to 120 Mbps via AST’s next-generation satellites. Meanwhile, the SatCo joint venture with Vodafone aims to deliver 100% geographic mobile coverage in Europe, aligning with the EU’s digital sovereignty agenda and potentially unlocking a lucrative recurring revenue stream from mobile network operators (MNOs).

On the technological front, ASTS notched a significant win in February 2025 with a $43 million contract from the U.S. Space Development Agency. The deal will leverage AST’s Block 2 BlueBird satellites, which feature the largest phased array antennas ever deployed in low Earth orbit. These advancements, validated by the successful BlueWalker-3 tests in 2024, position ASTS as a credible contender in both commercial and government markets, including secure military communications.

Regulatory progress has also been notable. The FCC’s Special Temporary Authority (STA) allows ASTS to test its service in the U.S. using unmodified smartphones on AT&T and Verizon networks, a crucial step toward commercial deployment. The company also plans to launch five commercial BlueBird satellites by mid-2025, with Block 2 models offering tenfold bandwidth improvements over earlier iterations.

Analyst opinions are sharply divided. Cantor Fitzgerald’s Strong Buy upgrade in February 2025 sparked a 17% intraday rally, with bulls highlighting ASTS’s first-mover advantage in a $1.3 trillion global market, a portfolio of over 3,500 patents, and agreements with more than 45 MNOs covering 2.8 billion subscribers. Yet, bears point to a lofty valuation at 125x projected 2025 sales, and persistent doubts about near-term profitability.

The consensus price target of $42.27 continues to reflect perceived upside from current price action, with the low target of $30 on the street also healthily above.

Whilst the current trajectory may be difficult to maintain at such a lofty valuation, AST SpaceMobile stands at the frontier of space-based connectivity, with the potential to reshape global communications. Its future will likely be determined by its ability to execute on ambitious plans, manage financial risks, and navigate a complex regulatory landscape.

Searching for the Perfect Broker?

Discover our top-recommended brokers for trading or investing in financial markets. Dive in and test their capabilities with complimentary demo accounts today!

YOUR CAPITAL IS AT RISK. 76% OF RETAIL CFD ACCOUNTS LOSE MONEY

Analysis Stocks Markets Strategies