Rigetti Computing Stock (NASDAQ: RGTI) Rallying Into Earnings: What To Expect

Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ: RGTI), a prominent player in the quantum computing space, is gearing up to report first-quarter 2025 earnings today, with the stock on the move. RGTI is trading up at $11.50 (+8.7%) during this morning's pre-market, having closed at $10.58 on Friday.

The volatility in RGTI has been profound, with the stock having rallied 75% since January 13th, but continuing to trade 47.10% down on a YTD basis. Zooming out, and the 12 month return of +733% demonstrates the interest that has been attracted to the quantum sector, and notably Rigetti. Despite the stock not trading on fundamentals at this stage, there is still a huge amount of interest in the upcoming financials, not least as it provides leadership an opportunity to share outlook.

Analysts expect Rigetti to report a Q1 2025 loss per share of -$0.04, an improvement from -$0.08 in Q4 2024, as the company continues to scale its Quantum Cloud Services platform. Revenue is projected to reach $2.55 million, up 12.3% quarter-over-quarter.

At a market capitalization of $3.04 billion and trailing twelve-month (TTM) revenue of $10.79 million, Rigetti trades at a staggering 274.2x price-to-sales ratio. The company’s negative EBITDA margin (-570.94%) and net losses (-$200.99 million TTM) highlight the steep costs of quantum R&D and commercialization, whilst RGTI’s beta of 2.64 underscores its high volatility.

🟩 The Bull Case for NASDAQ: RGTI

• Quantum computing is a potential game-changer for industries from pharmaceuticals to finance, and Rigetti is well-positioned with its scalable hardware roadmap.
• The company’s rapid revenue growth and improving loss trajectory indicate operational progress.
• Recent technical momentum (golden cross, strong RSI)
• Upcoming milestones, including a 1,000-qubit processor and potential government contracts
• High investor interest and sector tailwinds may sustain elevated valuations in the near term.

🟥 The Bear Case for NASDAQ: RGTI

• Valuation is extremely stretched, with a price-to-sales ratio making the stock vulnerable to sharp corrections.
• Persistent negative margins and high cash burn raise questions about long-term sustainability.
• Macro risks (tariffs, geopolitical tensions) and potential regulatory hurdles could disrupt supply chains or limit international growth.
• High volatility and speculative trading could amplify downside if sentiment shifts.

Looking ahead, Rigetti’s ambitious plan to deliver a 1,000-qubit processor by 2026 remains a potential catalyst. Success would cement its leadership in the quantum race, opening doors to potential partnerships with government agencies and Fortune 500 clients. With the company not trading on traditional fundamentals, sentiment will prove key. Hitting expected metrics, and continuing on an upward trajectory is likely the least markets will be expecting.