Bayer AG Shares (ETR: BAYN) Rallying Into Latest Earnings – What To Expect Next

Bayer AG shares (ETR: BAYN) move into earnings after an impressive start to year, having delivered 24% in gains to holders. The German life sciences conglomerate, is once again in the spotlight as the company prepares to release its Q1 2025 earnings on 13th May, with markets weighing whether the recent rally marks a sustainable turnaround or is merely a technical bounce amid persistent structural challenges.

Analysts expect Bayer to report EPS of €0.98 on revenue of €11.27 billion. However, full-year guidance remains cautious, with CFRA revising its 2025 EPS estimate down to €5.25, citing continued margin pressure in the Crop Science segment and generic competition in pharmaceuticals.

Bayer reaffirmed its full-year 2025 guidance in its Q4 2024 earnings, projecting group sales of €47.5-€49.5 billion and core EPS of €5.30-€5.80. Markets will be look for confirmation that Q1 results align with this trajectory, particularly in light of currency effects and commodity price volatility

Despite the strong start to 2025, the stock remains more than 20% below its 2024 high and continues to trade near the mid-point of its 52-week range (€18.38 to €31.03). The longer-term picture is starker: BAYN has shed 57.63% of its value over the past five years, a period defined by the fallout from its Monsanto acquisition, ongoing glyphosate litigation, and patent cliffs in its pharma division. The company’s all-time high of €144.12, reached in April 2015, now seems distant, underscoring the scale of the challenges faced.

Recent price action however has been encouraging for bulls. BAYN has closed above both its 50-day (€22.65) and 200-day (€23.68) moving averages, signaling renewed momentum. Technical indicators currently classify the stock as a “ Buy” based on moving average convergence, though oscillators remain neutral, a sign that sentiment is improving but not yet euphoric.

This technical breakout coincides with positive news flow regarding the company’s efforts to resolve glyphosate-related litigation, with legal provisions now reduced to €6 billion. The market appears to be rewarding Bayer for progress on this front, even as the underlying business faces headwinds.

Looking to analysts, and the picture is mixed, as UBS has trimmed its price target to €22, while BofA has upgraded the stock to “Neutral” with a €31 target, reflecting a more balanced risk-reward profile as litigation risks subside. The average price target of €27.47 indicates a potential upside of ~10% from the current Bayer share price.

Leading into earnings, Bayer AG’s recent performance signals renewed investor optimism, buoyed by technical momentum and easing litigation risk. However, the company’s long-term recovery is far from assured. Structural headwinds in its core businesses, coupled with execution risks in its turnaround strategy, mean that while the stock may offer value at current levels, it remains a high-uncertainty play.

We will watching the latest report for signs of sustainable progress in litigation resolution, pipeline innovation, and margin improvement, all factors that will ultimately determine whether Bayer’s rebound has staying power.