Intuitive Machines Earnings on Deck – What To Expect From LUNR

Intuitive Machines' stock (NASDAQ: LUNR) sentiment has been a tale of two halves over the past year, with a 56% gain over 12 months giving way to a a 53% decline over the past 3 months of trading. The recent shift reflects some post-IM-2 profit-taking and the market’s sensitivity to technical risks, with the price falling 16% on March 10th due to concerns about Athena’s stability in extreme lunar conditions.

The next catalyst will not be far away, with the company set to announce its Q1 2025 financial results before this morning's opening bell, with an 8:30 AM ET conference call. Analysts project a loss of -$0.10 per share and revenue of $66.07 million, reflecting ongoing investments in lunar missions and infrastructure.

The company’s recent history of mixed earnings surprises adds uncertainty: while Q4 2024 revenue missed estimates ($54.66M vs. $55.77M expected), it reported a surprise profit of $0.03 EPS against a forecasted -$0.08.

Intuitive Machines’ revenue grew 134.5% year-over-year to $350 million in 2024, with projections of $460 million by 2026. However, profitability remains elusive: the company reported a -78.1% EBIT margin in Q3 2024, and analysts do not expect positive EPS until 2026.

Analysts maintain an optimistic outlook, with a 12-month price target range of $12–$21. Cantor Fitzgerald’s $21 target implies a 127.5% upside, citing the NSNS contract and execution on delivery missions. However, short-term risks persist, including high beta (2.87) and reliance on government contracts (82% of 2024 revenue).

The consensus price target of $14.86 reflects more than 50% in perceived upside potential from the current LUNR price action, although these targets are notoriously fickle, and could change once the latest report is released.

Latest Operational Developments

Intuitive Machines is leveraging its first-mover advantage in lunar logistics, with four business units:

• Lunar Access Services: Nova-C/D landers for payload delivery.
• Orbital Services: Rideshare launches.
• Lunar Data Services: Emerging communications network.
• Space Infrastructure: Autonomous systems for navigation and maintenance.

IM-2 Lunar Landing and NASA Contracts

Intuitive Machines’ IM-2 mission, which landed the Athena lander near the Moon’s South Pole on March 6, 2025, marked its second successful lunar mission. The mission delivered NASA payloads to study lunar volatiles and deployed a laser retroreflector for navigation. Despite technical challenges—Athena landed 250 meters off-target in a crater—NASA deemed it a success, mirroring the mixed outcome of the 2024 Odysseus mission, which saw shares swing between +145% and -35%.

The company’s $4.8 billion NASA contract to develop a lunar communications network under the Near Space Network Services (NSNS) program has bolstered long-term revenue visibility. This aligns with Intuitive Machines’ strategic pivot toward recurring infrastructure services, including a pay-per-minute data transmission model set to debut on the IM-3 mission.

IM-4 Mission and SpaceX Partnership

The company also announced a partnership with SpaceX to launch its IM-4 mission in 2027, which will deploy two lunar data relay satellites and six NASA payloads, including a European Space Agency-led drill for water-ice detection. This mission underscores the company’s role in establishing permanent lunar infrastructure, though its 2027 timeline limits near-term financial impact.

🟩 The Bull Case

• First-mover advantage in lunar logistics and communications.
• Robust revenue growth with high-profile NASA contracts providing long-term visibility.
• IM-3 and IM-4 missions could unlock recurring, high-margin infrastructure revenue.
• Analyst price targets as high as $21 reflect confidence in strategic execution.

🟥 The Bear Case

• Heavy reliance on government contracts (82% of revenue) exposes LUNR to political/budgetary risk.
• Execution risks—mission failures or technical setbacks can trigger sharp sell-offs.
• High valuation multiples (7.2x price-to-sales) despite ongoing losses.
• Intense competition from other space infrastructure providers.

As the company prepares to report Q1 2025 results, all eyes will be on its ability to convert bold vision into operational and financial execution. Historical patterns suggest sharp post-earnings moves, such as the 30.04% surge after Q4 2024 results.