For a lot of us, the nightmare of the pandemic is slowly starting to fade; life is returning to normal as vaccination numbers rise and restrictions vanish. Various pharmaceutical companies were thrown into the spotlight as they competed in a vaccine race, creating serious market volatility in the process. Now though, as vaccination rates increase, a lot of investors are left thinking that sales for company’s like BioNTech (NASDAQ: BNTX) are about to hit a steep dip – and they might not be wrong.
Currently, the quarterly report for BioNTech illustrates strong vaccine sales; hinged on the growth of the Omnicron variant earlier this year. But as Omicron starts to fade, the unprecedented revenue rise will give way to a dip back to pre-pandemic revenue patterns. The company’s vaccine – developed with Pfizer – led to a Q1 revenue of $6.4B, more than triple the previous year, and soaring past analyst estimates of $4.6B. Again tripling from the year before, BioNTech’s earnings were pegged at $14.24, significantly higher than the consensus forecast of $9.71.
Investors should be focused on one particular potential problem for BioNTech – vaccine oversupply. With various companies now issuing global supplies of Covid-19 vaccines, not only is competition swamped, but demand no longer outweighs supply. BioNTech is well aware of the revenue drop, anticipating between $13B and $17B, compared to $19B the previous year. Health analytics firm Airfinity slashed its global sales forecast for the rest of the year by 20% to $64.1B; with various other big pharma names cutting revenue outlooks on the basis of oversupply.
BioNTech isn’t just a Covid play though, the company has been making promising progress in its potentially breakthrough cancer drugs, as well as pledging around $1.4B for R&D this year. So all in all, whilst revenue is definitely about to dip, there’s potential in the pipeline for BioNTech.
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Oliver is a financial writer and analyst specialising in the US stock market, with years of personal experience in understanding micro/macroeconomic structures, market trends and fundamental analysis.