B&M Shares: Down 45% in the Last 12 Months, Can it Turnaround?

B&M European Value Retail SA (LON: BME) shares have endured a sharp decline, with its stock down 45% over the past year, but Morgan Stanley believes a turnaround may be on the horizon. 

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The firm upgraded B&M from Underweight to Equalweight in a note this week, setting a price target of 310p, down from 329p. The stock is currently trading around 283.7p.

“In our view, recent events may pave the way for strategic change,” Morgan Stanley analysts wrote, adding that while the worst of the share price performance may be behind B&M, the company still faces a challenging transition period.

The key question for investors is said to be whether B&M can execute a successful restructuring strategy. 

A ‘margin reset’ scenario, where earnings per share (EPS) are cut by 25% relative to consensus estimates, could still lead to a re-rating over time, implying around 5% upside from current levels, according to Morgan Stanley.

However, the bank’s analysts warned that any turnaround will take time, stating: “There is no quick fix in our view – FY26 will likely be a transition year, with negative LfL and potential special DPS cut, as structural issues take time to be worked through.”

Morgan Stanley also flagged potential near-term downside risks, saying that if investor confidence remains low, the stock could remain range-bound before any potential re-rating takes hold.