The Bank of England will announce its rate decision on Thursday at 12:00 UK time, with Governor Andrew Bailey’s press conference at 12:30.
A Reuters poll of economists expects the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), the nine-member panel that sets it, to raise it to 4.0%. The meeting turns on how many members back the rise and what the Bank says about further increases.
Key points
- Decision on Thursday at 12:00 UK time
- Reuters poll expects hike to 4.0%
- Vote split and guidance unresolved
- Bailey press conference at 12:30
What is expected
The Reuters poll of economists, whose sample size is not stated, expects a rise from 3.75% to 4.0%, which would be the first since August 2023. It points to a 7-2 vote for a hike, with Alan Taylor and Swati Dhingra seen as most likely to vote to hold.
Markets are looking further out. They price three to four more quarter-point rises in 2027, which would take Bank Rate to between 4.75% and 5.0%. Economists polled by Reuters last month were split on whether further rises follow, so the gap is over 2027 rather than Thursday. Bank Rate has not changed since the last cut on the 18th of December 2025.
What has changed since the last meeting
When the MPC met on the 17th of September it held at 3.75% by 6-3, with three members voting for a 0.25-point rise to 4%. It judged the risks to inflation tilted to the upside.
Overall, the Committee judges that the risks to the inflation outlook are tilted to the upside, and more so than at the time of the July Monetary Policy Report
Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee
Since then, the Office for National Statistics reported on the 21st of October that CPI inflation rose to 3.5% in the year to September from 3.1% in August, with motor fuels the largest upward contribution. That compares with the Bank’s July forecast of 3.0%. Core inflation rose to 2.8% from 2.6%, and services inflation to 3.7% from 3.4%. The Bank warned in September that inflation would rise above 4% early next year. The next CPI release, on 18 November, comes after the decision.
What to watch
- The vote: whether the split differs from the 7-2 the Reuters poll points to, and who holds.
- The new forecasts: whether the inflation projections sit above the September warning of more than 4% early next year.
- The wording on further rises: whether the Bank pushes back on market pricing, or repeats that it stands ready to act as necessary.
Where markets stand
Sterling closed today at $1.34064, against $1.3395 on Friday. The Bank’s decision lands during the London session.