Puma’s Recovery to Stay Gradual into 2027, says mwb Analyst

mwb Research reiterated its Hold rating and €24 price target on Puma (ETR: PUM) shares in a note on Monday after the sportswear maker’s third-quarter earnings release. The firm said it expects only a gradual recovery in 2027.

The target implies about 9.8% downside from Friday’s closing share price of €26.62. The stock gained almost 1.7% on Monday to €27.06.

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Analyst Alexander Zienkowicz said management still expects sequential sales improvement in the fourth quarter and continues to target a return to growth and industry outperformance. However, cautious consumers and more selective wholesale ordering remain a constraint.

“Management stressed that translating momentum in Running, Training and selected Sportstyle franchises into broader consumer demand and meaningful scale will take time,” Zienkowicz wrote.

mwb models 2027 sales growth of 5%, toward the upper end of the low- to mid-single-digit industry growth rate Puma has previously estimated.

He added that gross margin improvement is already visible, supported by the exit from low-margin distribution, tighter discount management and a higher direct-to-consumer mix.

However, operating expense leverage is likely to improve only gradually, as part of the headcount-related savings will be reinvested in marketing, direct-to-consumer, IT and capabilities.

The analyst also noted that major shareholder Anta’s role is becoming more concrete now that its investment has closed, with discussions already underway on Puma’s future operating model in China.

“This gives the partnership a first tangible strategic focus, although financial targets, synergy estimates and a broader roadmap have yet to be disclosed,” he said.

“Gross-margin fundamentals are improving, but a more constructive case would require broader topline momentum across North America, EMEA and wholesale, together with clearer operating leverage,” Zienkowicz added.