Constellation Brands Earnings Loom – Stock (STZ) at Multi Year Lows

Constellation Brands stock (NYSE: STZ) trades marginally above the recent multi year low, with a 26.9% decline through the first half of 2025 leaving holders searching for a sentiment shift. With earnings on deck after market close today, there could be a start, following what has been a year marked by revised financial forecasts, strategic divestitures, and evolving consumer behavior,

The street is expecting EPS to come in at $3.29, a marked decline from the $3.57 hit in the same period Y/Y, yet an improvement on the most recent print. For the most recent quarter ending March 31, 2025, Constellation Brands reported earnings per share (EPS) of $2.63, surpassing the consensus estimate of $2.27 by $0.36.

Revenue is expected to come in at $2.56B, for a ~4% decline Y/Y. Whilst sales are forecast to expand in the next quarter to $2.69B, and $9.46B on the year, both figures are more than 7% below those reported last year.

While the company maintains a strong portfolio of brands like Modelo and continues to return value to shareholders through dividends, a confluence of factors has created a complex landscape for STZ.

The downward trend has been in place since March 2024, although amplified by a missed earnings release back in January. This underperformance, attributed to persistent inflation affecting consumer spending, prompted Constellation Brands to lower its annual net sales growth forecast to 2-5%, a considerable reduction from the previous estimate of 4-6%.

CEO Bill Newlands' acknowledgment of uncertainty surrounding the normalization of consumer spending further dampened investor sentiment.

With the stock trading around $162, there has been little for STZ bulls to cheer over the past 12 months, with more than 1/3rd of market cap lost (36.5%). The $160-$165 range has provided some resistance, and support in prior years, and could act as a platform if the fundamentals can support a move.

This latest set of earnings, and more importantly, the outlook and messaging from leadership could prove critical in determining the next leg for Constellation Brands stock price.