Experian Share Price (LON: EXPN) Close to Highs as Markets Await FY25 Financials

Experian's shares (LON: EXPN) gained 2.21% today, back in sight of the 4,000p level, with the latest set of financial results due before the market opens tomorrow. The company, a global leader in data analytics and credit services, is expected to deliver £7.52billion in revenue, with an EPS of £1.57 for the year.

Current estimates for FY26 are for EPS to grow to £1.75, with revenue of £8.17B.

Looking back at Q3, and Experian reported solid third-quarter results for FY25, with total revenue growth of 8% at constant exchange rates and organic revenue growth of 6%. Excluding data breach services, organic growth reached 8%, underscoring strong underlying business trends. When broken down into regional performances, you see modest growth in the home market, with greater expansion in the Americas as you can see below.

• North America (68% of revenue): 7% total revenue growth, driven by mortgage services, Clarity analytics, and automotive sector demand.
• Latin America: 8% organic growth despite macroeconomic challenges, with consumer services revenue surging 22% due to successful credit marketplace initiatives.
• UK and Ireland: Modest 1% organic growth, attributed to a subdued economic environment and one-time factors.

The company also reaffirmed its full-year guidance at the time, projecting organic revenue growth of 6–8% and margin expansion at the upper end of 30–50 basis points. This consistency has bolstered investor confidence, reflected in a 0.9% stock price increase following the announcement.

Operationally, there have been some wins, as well as new partnerships.

The company's generative AI tool, Experian Assistant, secured the 2025 BIG Innovation Award in the financial services category. Integrated with the Ascend Platform, the tool reduces model-development cycles from months to days by optimising credit and fraud analytics.

In March, the firm announced a groundbreaking partnership with Affirm to report buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) loans on credit files. Since April 1, 2025, all Affirm loans, including Pay-in-4, will be visible on Experian reports. While BNPL data won’t immediately affect traditional credit scores, this initiative positions Experian as a pioneer in integrating alternative data, enhancing lenders’ ability to assess borrower risk.

As far as the analyst community is concerned, Experian is currently trading relatively close to the consensus price target of 4,081p. It has been noted that Experian’s elevated P/E ratio (now over 40) prices in significant future growth, leaving little margin for error. Additionally, sluggish UK economic conditions have dampened B2B growth in the region, while synthetic ID fraud and deepfake threats pose ongoing risks to credit security.

🟩 The Bull Case

• Market Leadership: Dominant position in the $50B observability market with strong partnerships (AWS, Edge Delta).
• Consistent Growth: Five-year share appreciation of nearly 68%; robust revenue and ARR growth.
• Financial Strength: High margins, strong balance sheet, and significant free cash flow.
• Innovation: Cutting-edge AI/automation features and expanded cloud security offerings.
• Upside Potential: Trades below consensus price target; possible positive surprise in Q4/FY2026 guidance.

🟥 The Bear Case

• Valuation Concerns: Elevated forward P/E and P/S ratios relative to sector peers.
• Growth Deceleration: Slowing ARR growth and currency headwinds may compress future growth rates.
• Competitive Pressure: Intense rivalry from Datadog, New Relic, and others.
• Market Skepticism: Recent product launches failed to spark a sustained rally, hinting at monetisation challenges.

Experian’s stock performance reflects a balance between strong fundamentals (revenue growth, innovation) and valuation risks.

With a diversified revenue base and leadership in data analytics, Experian remains a cornerstone of the FTSE 100, albeit one requiring careful valuation assessment in the current market climate.