Nike Q4 Results Earnings Preview: Wall Street Braced for More Pain

Nike (NYSE: NKE) reports its fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 earnings after the close on Tuesday, June 30, as investors look for early signs that CEO Elliott Hill’s “Win Now” turnaround strategy is gaining meaningful traction.

What Analysts Expect

The Wall Street consensus, per Yahoo Finance, calls for earnings per share of $0.11, a steep 21.4% decline from the $0.14 reported a year ago. Revenue is expected to come in around $10.85–$10.9 billion, down roughly 2% year-over-year and consistent with management’s own guidance range of a 2%–4% decline for the quarter.

Previous Guidance

On its Q3 call in March, management flagged that Greater China revenues would fall approximately 20% in Q4 due to accelerated marketplace cleanup and reduced sell-in — a deliberate but painful reset. Full-year FY2026 EPS is forecast at $1.49, down 31% from $2.16 in fiscal 2025, though analysts project a recovery to roughly $1.85 in FY2027 as restructuring benefits and tariff headwinds fade.

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Share Price Pressure

NKE has fallen approximately 40.8% over the past 52 weeks, sliding from around $70 in mid-2025 to around $41 heading into results, sharply underperforming both the S&P 500 (+22%) and the consumer discretionary sector.

Analyst Commentary

RBC Capital Markets downgraded NKE to Sector Perform in June, cutting its price target to $50 from $70, citing a turnaround that is “making progress, but slower and narrower than we were anticipating.”

BNP Paribas analyst Laurent Vasilescu was more cautious, estimating Nike’s performance business needs to grow 20–25% for the company to hit full-year guidance — a bar he called “unrealistic” — and flagging the risk of a guidance cut. Of 35 analysts covering the stock, 12 carry a Strong Buy rating and 19 a Hold, with a consensus price target of ~$59.70, implying roughly 40% upside.

Despite green shoots in North America — where Q3 wholesale grew 11% and Nike Running surged over 20% — China, tariffs, and heavy promotions remain the key overhangs Tuesday’s report will need to address.

All estimates sourced from Yahoo Finance/analyst consensus as of June 27, 2026.