Oil at $90 and Gold at $6,200? How to Trade the US–Iran Conflict Escalation

Global markets remain on edge as the U.S.–Iran conflict intensifies, with energy and precious metals prices swinging sharply since the latest round of military strikes.

Brent crude is trading at $81.96 and WTI at $74.69 after surging on Monday and Tuesday, while gold retreated to around $5,100 an ounce after briefly topping $5,400.

UBS analysts highlighted in a recent note that the disruption to energy flows is the market’s central risk.

Qatar’s LNG shutdown and the near halt of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz have pushed European and UK natural gas prices roughly 33% higher.

UBS warns that if shipping curbs persist, “production becoming ‘shut in’” could follow, potentially sending oil “above USD 90/bbl” in a more severe scenario.

Still, UBS’s base case assumes the conflict will last less than four weeks, with the bank expecting oil to settle back toward the $60–$70 range if hostilities ease and normal flows resume.

However, the outlook for gold remains significantly bullish, according to the bank. UBS says macro conditions “favor the possibility of gold reaching USD 6,200/oz this year,” citing strong central bank buying and currency diversification trends.

“Gold prices could rise even further if sustained high oil prices result in weaker global growth prospects or stagflation,” the bank added.

Equity markets remain volatile, with travel stocks under pressure and energy and defense names outperforming.

UBS stresses that investors should avoid reactive moves and instead strengthen diversification across sectors and asset classes, including commodities, quality fixed income, and alternatives, to help absorb geopolitical shocks.