Palantir’s Stock Back Within Sight of Highs as Earnings Loom Large (NASDAQ: PLTR)

Palantir's stock (NASDAQ: PLTR) continues to command the spotlight as one of the most popular names in the artificial intelligence (AI) and defense technology sectors. With earnings due on Monday, Palantir is again on the rise, up 5% on the day, and back within reach of the all time highs of $125.41 hit earlier this year.

Over the past 12 months, PLTR has surged an eye-popping 440%, vastly outperforming the S&P 500’s 11.6% return. This meteoric rise has been powered by the company’s dominance in AI-driven data analytics, its expanding roster of government and commercial clients, and a relentless appetite for innovation. So what are markets expecting out of Palantir's earnings?

Consensus estimates call for revenue of $862 million and earnings per share of $0.08, double that of the same period last year. The company’s growth engine is firing on multiple cylinders: commercial revenue has reached $2.3 billion on a trailing twelve-month basis, and high-profile government contracts continue to bolster the top line.

Recent wins include a $30 million contract with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) to develop the Immigration Lifecycle Operating System, and a reported partnership with SpaceX and Anduril Industries to bid on the ambitious “Golden Dome” missile defense initiative. These deals underscore Palantir’s entrenched position in national security and its ability to secure large, multi-year contracts. Yet, they also expose the company to political risk, as evidenced by the controversy surrounding its ICE partnership and the uncertainty of defense budget allocations amid proposed Pentagon spending cuts.

Leading into the print, Palantir trades at a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 92.3x and a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 309.5x, metrics that far exceed industry averages. This premium pricing reflects investor optimism about its AI-driven growth, and some to consider the firm a ‘meme stock', but this also leaves the stock vulnerable to corrections if earnings fail to meet elevated expectations. Retail traders have played a pivotal role in Palantir’s volatility, contributing $339 million in net purchases during a single week in February 2025. 

Analysts at Morgan Stanley maintain a bullish $115 price target, citing Palantir’s “ontology-based” AI infrastructure as a key differentiator. Conversely, firms like Jefferies warn that any deceleration in growth could exacerbate downside risk. The consensus 12-month price target stands at $93.69, suggesting limited upside from current levels, though bullish outliers see potential for a move to $120 or higher.

What has been raised as a negative is insider sales, with CEO Alex Karp having sold approximately $1.9 billion worth of shares since 2024, with plans to offload an additional $800 million by September 2025. While some insider selling is routine, the scale has raised eyebrows, especially as the company’s valuation reaches new heights.

Technically, Palantir’s momentum remains strong. The current price sits 29% above its 50-day simple moving average and a staggering 84% above its 200-day average, signaling sustained bullish sentiment. Momentum indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 69.58 suggest the stock is nearing overbought territory, while the MACD’s bullish crossover points to continued upward potential. However, the high Average True Range (ATR) of $7.05 underscores the potential for sharp intraday moves.

Earnings will certainly provide further clarity on operations, and will be a hot ticket once the weekend wraps up. Pushing into the end of this week, there will be plenty looking for the stock to take out new highs in the days to come.