Plus500 Shares Slide Despite Record Revenue, Analyst Flags Margin Miss and Rising Churn

Shares in Plus500 (LON: PLUS) have fallen over 12% on Monday morning, wiping out recent gains, after a H1 2026 trading update revealed cracks beneath record headline numbers that analysts say justify investor caution.

While revenue rose 12% year-on-year to $462.9m — a three-year high — and customer income hit a five-year record of $460.8m, the details of the second quarter disappointed.

Broker Cavendish said Q2 EBITDA of $91.8m, implying a 41.6% margin, came in below its forecasts, attributing the miss to “higher levels of marketing expense and the continued strength in Shekel” — a currency headwind Plus500 has flagged as pressuring reported costs.

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More concerning to analysts was the customer picture. Cavendish noted Q2 customer income of $190.2m fell 29.7% quarter-on-quarter, while churn ran at 33%, above its 30% forecast, dragging active customers down 16.8% QoQ and 1% YoY to 131,214 — despite new customer additions of 25,856 beating expectations.

Unusually, the group also failed to disclose Average Cost of Acquiring Customers (AUAC), a metric investors typically watch closely.

Cavendish’s Rahim Karim summed up the market mood: while acknowledging Plus500’s “significant strategic performance,” he said the lack of a fresh guidance upgrade — after several earlier in the year — “given the macro environment and share price performance YTD might be perceived as slightly disappointing.”

The strategic story remains intact — US prediction markets (including CFTC-regulated sports contracts launched in June), Canadian OTC expansion, and 24/5 stock trading all featured — with non-OTC revenue up 30% YoY to $70m.

But with FY26 guidance merely reconfirmed rather than raised, and underlying quarterly momentum softening, investors chose to sell first and ask questions later. Full interim results land 10 August.