Porsche Automobil SE Shares (PAH3) Down 24% in 12 Months – What is Driving Price?

Porsche Automobil Holding SE (ETR: PAH3), the holding company with significant stakes in Volkswagen AG and Porsche AG, has faced a tumultuous period marked by geopolitical tensions, shifting market dynamics, and strategic recalibrations.

With PAH3 shares trading down 24.21% over the past 12 months, holders will be looking for signs of recovery when the latest set of financials are released. The 15.12% rebound over the past month of trading will be welcome news, with recent reports from Porsche AG revising to the downside.

On April 28, 2025, Porsche AG slashed its 2025 revenue forecast to €37–38 billion (down from €39–40 billion) and reduced its operating profit margin guidance to 6.5–8.5% (previously 10–12%). The adjustment reflects dual pressures: 25% U.S. import tariffs on European vehicles and a 42% year-over-year decline in Chinese deliveries during Q1 2025. CFO Jochen Breckner attributed the weak outlook to “challenging macroeconomic conditions,” particularly in China, where a property crisis has dampened luxury spending.

Porsche preemptively shipped inventory to the U.S. ahead of the April 2025 tariff implementation, but the measures still impacted April and May results. The company warned that its revised forecast excludes potential long-term tariff effects, citing uncertainty over future trade policies. Analysts estimate the tariffs could cost Porsche $100 million in additional expenses, threatening its margin recovery.

Deliveries and Impairments

North American deliveries rose 37% YoY in Q1, aided by tariff-avoidance stockpiling. However, analysts question sustainability given rising protectionism. In Europe, Porsche’s 8.6% operating margin (down from 14.2% in 2024) reflects higher R&D costs for new combustion and hybrid models. China, once Porsche’s largest market, saw deliveries plummet to ~40,000 units in 2025 (vs. 95,000 in 2021).

Despite a net loss of €20.02 billion in 2024 (driven by €23.3 billion in non-cash impairments on Volkswagen and Porsche AG stakes), Porsche SE proposed a dividend of €1.91 per preference share. The payout, unchanged from 2023, underscores management’s commitment to shareholder returns, though the -3% payout ratio highlights reliance on balance sheet reserves.

In a portfolio assessment, Porsche SE recognized €19.9 billion in impairments on its Volkswagen stake and €3.4 billion on Porsche AG, reflecting weaker valuations in both subsidiaries. Adjusted for these charges, the group reported a €3.2 billion profit, driven by dividends from core investments. Management emphasized a “value-over-volume” strategy in China and increased investments in battery technology, including a €1.3 billion special expense for strategic realignments.