Rivian (RIVN) Q1 Earnings Preview: All Things ‘Supply Chain’

Trade Rivian Shares Your Capital Is At Risk
Ollie Martin
Updated: 11 May 2022

Key points:

For EV investors, it’s a precarious time. Demand has never been stronger, but headwinds in the form of geopolitical pressures, supply chain hurdles and rising inflation are all weighing on what should be a great time for EV culture as a whole. Rivian (NASDAQ: RIVN) is set to report its first-quarter earnings after the bell today, and after the company CEO’s recent foreboding warning, analysts and investors will be looking at all-things supply chain.

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On the financial side, analysts are expecting a loss of $1.44 per share on revenue of $130.5M, but it's the wider lens that will capture the most sincere picture of Rivian’s current trajectory. Months of uncertainty have placed particular pressure on company outlook, offering investors a clearer picture of how the company plans to navigate the choppy waters. Supply chain issues and shortages might well be a lasting feature of the current landscape, at least that's what company CEO RJ Scaringe warned of in March.

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It wasn’t just a warning, Rivian halved its total production capacity for 2022. Production cutbacks are already priced into shares, yet any further update will likely spur a market reaction. In this case, it might not matter how many orders Rivian has secured if the company is stricken with production limitations. Ford – who is swooping in on EV truck market share well ahead of Rivian – is expecting to scale production of its F-150 Lightning to match increasing demand, again a worrying predicament for Rivian buyers.

The electric truck maker will be expected to answer questions regarding Ford and Amazon’s stake in the company. Ford, the largest backer, recently sold around 8M shares following the lockup expiration, and it's rumored that Amazon may just follow suit.

The recent update from management means that investors are already well-aware of supply chain-induced production cutbacks, but any positive update will be well received.

Back in March, Rivian said it had about 83,000 reservations for its R1T pickup and R1S SUV. Investors will be eager to see where that number stands on Wednesday.

Likewise, Rivian has slashed its production forecasts for 2022. It said in March that it expects to build 25,000 vehicles this year, down from the 50,000 it predicted in its initial public offering roadshow presentation last year. Wall Street will be looking for an update on production capacity when the company reports this week.

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