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Taylor Wimpey Flags Subdued Autumn, Profit Near Bottom of Consensus

Taylor Wimpey says a more subdued autumn selling season leaves it expecting around 10,500 UK completions in 2026, with profit around the bottom end of the consensus range.

Taylor Wimpey (LON: TW.), the UK housebuilder, now expects around 10,500 UK completions this year and profit around the bottom end of consensus after a weaker autumn selling season. The trading update was published at 7am today, before the market opened.

TW.LSE

Chief Executive Jennie Daly put the slowdown down to buyers’ finances.

The Autumn selling season has been more subdued, as higher mortgage rates and living costs continue to reduce customer affordability. We now expect 2026 UK completions excluding joint ventures to be around 10,500 homes and Group adjusted operating profit […] to be around the bottom end of the consensus range […].

Jennie Daly, Taylor Wimpey

Completions are homes legally sold and handed over, and joint ventures are projects shared with partner firms. Consensus is the company-compiled range of forecasts for adjusted operating profit, £262m to £299m as published on Friday. The statement gives no absolute profit figure.

The sales data points the same way. The net private sales rate, private sales per outlet per week, was 0.60 between the 29th of June and Sunday, against 0.63 a year earlier. Excluding bulk deals, which are block sales to investors, it was 0.54 against 0.61. Cancellations held at 17%.

The order book, homes sold but not yet completed, stood at 6,839 excluding joint ventures, against 7,253 a year earlier. It was valued at c.£1,984m against c.£2,116m.

A bullet comparison showing Taylor Wimpey's current order book in homes sitting below the prior year's equivalent order book, indicating a year-on-year decline.
Taylor Wimpey’s order book excluding joint ventures was 6,839 homes at the 8th of November, against 7,253 a year earlier.

Pricing is under pressure too. Taylor Wimpey said prices continue to soften marginally and incentives remain elevated, while it still expects build cost inflation of 3-4% for 2026.

There are offsets. The group is operating from 225 outlets, active sites selling homes, up c.9% from 206 a year ago. It expects to end the year with c.£250m of net cash, after returning c.£240m to shareholders through dividends and buybacks.

Daly and Chris Carney, Group Finance Director, host an analyst and investor call at 9am today.

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