Walmart Set To Report Earnings – What Are Markets Expecting (NYSE: WMT)

Walmart’s stock (NYSE: WMT) has delivered impressive gains for holders over the past 12 months, with the price increasing 61.84%, against the broader S&P 500's fain of 11% on the same period. Now with fiscal Q1 2026 earnings coming before the market opens this morning, all eyes will be on whether the company can continue to build on recent momentum.

Analysts are looking for revenue of $165.96 billion (up 3% YoY) and adjusted EPS of $0.58 (down 2% YoY), reflecting margin compression from tariff-related costs and inflationary pressures. Historically, WMT shares have had a mixed performance after earnings, rising 50% of the time on the day, with a median one-day gain of 3.6%.

However, consensus forecasts also acknowledge margin compression, driven by tariff-related costs and inflationary pressures. While the recent U.S.-China tariff truce has provided immediate relief, the reprieve is temporary. Goldman Sachs estimates the truce could save Walmart $1.2 billion annually on Chinese imports, but management has warned of a “wider range of outcomes” for operating income if trade tensions flare up again.

Operationally, Walmart’s $22 billion annual capex program is yielding tangible results in its delivery infrastructure. The company now covers 93% of U.S. households with 3-hour delivery via a hexagonal geospatial grid system, replacing ZIP code-based logistics.

These investments are critical as eCommerce now represents 18% of net sales ($121 billion annually). The integration of automated fulfillment centers has also improved inventory turnover to 8.1x (up from 7.5x in 2023), easing concerns about tariff-related stockpiling. With delivery speed becoming a key competitive moat against Amazon, Walmart’s operational upgrades could support premium valuation multiples.

The 10% dividend hike and the acquisition of Monroeville Mall to bolster urban fulfillment, further signal management’s confidence in Walmart’s long-term cash flow and market positioning.

Looking to analysts, and Bank of America and Citi remain firmly bullish, setting street high 12-month price targets as high as $120, citing Walmart’s omnichannel scalability and market share dominance.

With the street holding a consensus price target of $107.33, there is seen to be a potential upside of ~10% from the current price level. This optimism stems from Walmart’s resilience as a consumer staple during economic uncertainty.

The immediate outlook hinges on two factors: the sustainability of tariff relief and Walmart’s ability to defend margins in a challenging cost environment. While the company’s defensive attributes and operational agility position it well, any disappointment in earnings or guidance could trigger a retest of key support levels.

Options markets are pricing in a ±5% post-earnings move, with a put/call skew that slightly favors upside bets near $105. Support levels are clustered around $95.45, while resistance looms at the psychological level $100.