Mondi (LON: MNDI) shares have gained attention this week after JPMorgan upgraded the stock from Neutral to Overweight, citing multiple catalysts for potential upside.
The firm set a December 2026 price target of 1,430p on the stock, implying around 20% upside from current levels.
Mondi shares rose more than 3% in Wednesday’s session but are down around 0.9% so far on Thursday. This year, the stock is up close to 1.4%. However, it has declined by more than 24% in the last 12 months.
JPMorgan analyst Detlef Winckelmann highlighted several reasons for the bank’s shift in stance. “We upgrade Mondi to OW (from N) due to: (1) limited downside risk in containerboard markets, (2) upside risks in kraft paper markets,” he said in a note.
JPMorgan also pointed to improving sentiment around earnings expectations. “Consensus estimates [are] becoming more reasonable, signalling the end of the earnings downgrade cycle,” Winckelmann wrote.
The bank believes this reduces the risk of further disappointment and stabilises the investment case.
Longer term, JPMorgan sees room for significant value creation. “Through the cycle (TTC) earnings [are] still being ~60% ahead of 2024 EBITDA suggesting significant value unlock for MT-LT investors,” the analyst stated.
Based on these assumptions, JPMorgan's TTC valuation model suggests up to 70% upside.
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