The Fed decides on Wednesday at 6 pm UK time, with the ECB following on Thursday at 1:15 pm. The week starts quietly. Germany’s Ifo business climate survey is due tomorrow (Monday) at 9am, with the consensus in our data feed at 89.8 against a previous 89.9. On Tuesday, US durable goods orders and consumer confidence arrive.
Wednesday: the Fed
The Fed announces its decision on Wednesday at 6pm UK time, with a press conference at 6:30pm. Fed funds stood in a 3.75% to 4.00% range as of 23 October, and the consensus in our data feed is for the upper bound to stay at 4%. Microsoft (MSFT.US) and Alphabet are scheduled to report after the US close the same day.
Thursday: the busiest day
At 12:30pm, the US publishes third-quarter GDP growth and September PCE inflation, the personal consumption expenditures price index. GDP growth was previously 2.2%, and the consensus in our data feed is 3.2%. Headline PCE inflation was previously 3.4% against a consensus of 3.6%, and core PCE, which strips out food and energy, was 3% against 3.1%.
The ECB follows at 1:15pm, with a press conference at 1:45pm. The deposit facility rate was 2.5% and the main refinancing rate 2.65% as of 23 October, and the feed expects no change in either. After the close, Lloyds, Shell and Amazon are all scheduled to report.
Friday and the Bank of England
Friday brings euro-area and German third-quarter GDP, German inflation and the US employment cost index.
The Bank of England’s Bank Rate is 3.75%, and there is no decision until the 5th of November.
Key events, UK time
| Day | UK time | Event | Previous | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 26 Oct | 09:00 | DE Ifo business climate | 89.9 | 89.8 |
| Mon 26 Oct | 11:00 | UK CBI Distributive Trades | -55 | -47 |
| Mon 26 Oct | 14:30 | US Dallas Fed Manufacturing | 9.8 | 7 |
| Tue 27 Oct | 12:30 | US Durable Goods (Sep, mom) | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| Tue 27 Oct | 14:00 | US CB Consumer Confidence | 81.9 | 80.5 |
| Tue 27 Oct | 14:00 | US New Home Sales (mom) | 6.4 | -3.5 |
| Tue 27 Oct | 17:00 | Lagarde speech | – | no consensus |
| Wed 28 Oct | 07:00 | DE GfK consumer climate | -30.6 | -29.1 |
| Wed 28 Oct | 18:00 | Fed decision (upper bound) | 4% | 4% |
| Wed 28 Oct | 18:30 | Fed press conference | – | no consensus |
| Thu 29 Oct | 10:00 | EU Economic Sentiment | 97.9 | 97.2 |
| Thu 29 Oct | 12:30 | US GDP Q3 (qoq) | 2.2% | 3.2% |
| Thu 29 Oct | 12:30 | US Core PCE (yoy) | 3% | 3.1% |
| Thu 29 Oct | 12:30 | US PCE (yoy) | 3.4% | 3.6% |
| Thu 29 Oct | 12:30 | US Initial Jobless Claims | 194 | 196 |
| Thu 29 Oct | 13:15 | ECB decision (MRO) | 2.65% | 2.65% |
| Thu 29 Oct | 13:15 | ECB deposit facility rate | 2.5% | 2.5% |
| Thu 29 Oct | 13:45 | ECB press conference | – | no consensus |
| Fri 30 Oct | 07:00 | UK Nationwide House Prices (mom) | -0.2 | -0.2 |
| Fri 30 Oct | 09:00 | DE GDP Q3 (qoq) | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Fri 30 Oct | 10:00 | EU GDP Q3 (qoq) | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Fri 30 Oct | 10:00 | EU Unemployment | 6.4% | 6.4% |
| Fri 30 Oct | 12:30 | US Employment Cost Index (qoq) | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Fri 30 Oct | 13:00 | DE Inflation (yoy) | 3.3% | 3.3% |
| Fri 30 Oct | 13:45 | US Chicago PMI | 58.8 | 55.9 |
Thursday carries the most rows, with the US GDP and PCE releases and the ECB decision all landing within about an hour of each other.