US Inflation Preview: September CPI Lands Before the Fed’s October Meeting
US consumer price data for September arrives on Wednesday, the last major inflation reading before the Federal Reserve decides whether to raise interest rates again at its meeting later this month.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish September consumer price inflation on Wednesday the 14th of October, at 13:30 UK time. It is the last major inflation print before the Federal Reserve meets on the 27th and 28th of October.
With inflation elevated, the Fed raised rates on the 16th of September, lifting its target range for the federal funds rate, its overnight lending band, by a quarter point to 3.75% to 4.00%. The vote was 12-0, and the statement said inflation remains elevated.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on the 8th of October that more hikes will likely be needed to bring inflation down to the 2% target, though with flexibility on pace, Reuters reported.
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The dollar, Treasury yields and Wall Street usually react first to the release, because it feeds directly into expectations for the next Fed move. The S&P 500 is the main US equity gauge to watch once Wall Street opens an hour later.
August headline CPI rose 0.4% on the month and 3.4% on the year, against 2.9% a year earlier. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, rose 0.3% on the month and 2.4% on the year, against 3.1% a year earlier.
Headline inflation has run between 3.3% and 4.2% since March, driven by energy. The BLS said energy prices were up 16.3% on the year in August, while core has eased from 2.9% in May.
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US headline and core CPI, year on year, March 2025 to August 2026. Derived from BLS index levels; October 2025 was not published. Source: BLS.
A data-provider consensus points to a hotter headline figure but a mild core reading for September.
Measure
August
September consensus
Headline CPI y/y
3.4%
3.7%
Headline CPI m/m
0.4%
0.6%
Core CPI y/y
2.4%
2.5%
Core CPI m/m
0.3%
0.2%
The gap between a firmer headline and a softer core is what the reaction is likely to turn on. A hot reading would raise the chance of another hike on the 28th; a cooler one would ease it.
Producer prices and retail sales follow on Thursday the 15th. For UK traders, the dollar and US index moves are the main read-across, and any effect on gilts and the FTSE 100 would come through shifts in global rate expectations.
The AskTraders Analyst Team features experts in technical and fundamental analysis, as well as traders specializing in stocks, forex, and cryptocurrency.
