Bitcoin Outlook and Price Forecast

Here we take a look at the market leader in the cryptocurrency space from a technical analysis standpoint, looking at the chart outlook for Bitcoin (BTC). Plus, we give some potential price triggers and projections for both the upside and downside.

Wider Crypto Market Chart Set Ups

The broader cryptocurrency market is generally in a short- and intermediate-term holding pattern, digesting the losses that were evident in early November in the wake of the FTX collapse. In some instances, the November plunges took some cryptocurrencies and altcoins to new bear cycle lows for 2022, in other cases, markets held above lows that were posted early in 2022, mostly in the early summer.

Whatever the various sets ups, most cryptocurrencies are currently in consolidation phases, unsure whether to build on positive price action that was widely seen through the latter summer 2022 and also in October of this year. Or whether to re-energise bearish themes that were seen in the first half of 2022 with the whole bear market and dive into the “crypto winter”, plus from the more recent price erosion evident from the FTX implosion.

From our technical perspective, and as can be seen below for BTC, we currently err on the side of bases being formed for a more sustainable recovery phase into late 2022 and in into Q1 2023.

Bitcoin Outlook and Prospects

Despite the early November BTC sell off to a new bear market low (through the June low at 17604), and a further extension lower in late November to 15840, Bitcoin has not experienced aggressive capitulation activity, that was seen for example in the June 2022 breakdown. Furthermore, in the recent recovery activity up until last week to 18369 and the subsequent correction down from here last week, the market continues to display a base building, recovery theme.

Key Technical Focus: The critical focus should be on the 50- and 100-day Moving Averages (MAs). These MAs have been negative since May and should we get a bullish cross over of the 50- above the 100-day, then this would signal a more sustainable bottoming.

BTC Upside Risks and Downside Threats

Upside Risks: We see upside prospects into year-end for a rebound back to the recent peak at 18369. Into January 2023 the risk above here is for a better rally to challenge the swing peak at 21425. And for Q1 2023 the bias would then be still higher to targets at 22778 and 25204.

Downside Threats: Below 16002 would set up a more negative theme, damaging the recovery phase seen from the November low at 15480. Through 16002 would quickly set up risk to challenge this cycle low (15480) and open up risks for a more bearish extension towards targets at 12250 and even as deep as 10500/10000.