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EURUSD Edged Higher on Mixed Eurozone CPI, Retail & GDP Data

Simon Mugo trader
Updated 31 Jul 2023

The EURUSD currency pair was trading almost flat for the day but started heading higher at writing during the early American session ahead of crucial American releases. Various releases from Germany, Italy and the Eurozone impacted the pair's performance earlier today.


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The first crucial report that impacted the EURUSD was the retail sales data from Germany, which recorded a 1.6% decline compared to last year. The German retail sales data contracted by 0.8% monthly, exceeding analysts' expectations of a 0.2% decline. However, the annualised figure was better than expected.

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YOUR CAPITAL IS AT RISK. 76% OF RETAIL CFD ACCOUNTS LOSE MONEY

Next, the pair were hit by the preliminary Q2 GDP data from Italy, which came in at  -0.3% quarterly, below analysts' expectations of no growth. The annualised Italian Q2 GDP print reached a solid 0.6% but was still below consensus estimates of 0.9% growth. 

Furthermore, Spain’s current account balance for May was recorded at €3.99 billion, beating analysts’ estimates of €3.19 billion, boosting the single currency. Later on, the release of July's Italian preliminary consumer price index (CPI) data also supported the pair. 

The Italian inflation data for July was recorded at 0.1% monthly, meeting analysts’ targets, while the annualised print was better than expected at 6.0%, beating analysts' consensus estimates of 6.1% and boosting the euro. 

Next was the harmonised index of consumer prices for the eurozone released by Eurostat. The harmonised CPI was recorded at -0.1% on a preliminary and monthly basis for July. The annualised harmonised CPI was recorded at 5.3%, in line with analysts' expectations. 

The eurozone also released its preliminary Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q2 2023, which came in at a quarterly 0.3%, beating analysts' consensus estimates of 0.2%, while the annualised print was recorded at 0.6%, exceeding the median estimates of 0.4%. 

The upbeat data from across the eurozone had done little to boost the currency pair during the European session until the early American session when the currency pair started moving higher. 

The release of the downbeat US Chicago Purchasing Managers (PMI) for July came in at 42.8, missing consensus estimates of 43.0 also boosted the currency pair. 

*This is not investment advice. 

The EURUSD price chart. 

The EURUSD currency pair was trading up 10.8 pips (0.10%) amid a relatively calm market.


YOUR CAPITAL IS AT RISK. 76% OF RETAIL CFD ACCOUNTS LOSE MONEY.


Simon has over six years of professional trading experience across FX, commodities and equities. He has a strong passion for financial markets and is particularly focused on price action trading