Rheinmetall: mwb Analyst Sees Mixed Insider Signal, Cuts Q3 Estimates

mwb research told investors in a recent note that insider buying at Rheinmetall (ETR:RHM) sends a mixed signal and lowered its third-quarter forecasts, while keeping a Hold rating and 1,050 euro price target on the stock.

Analyst Jens-Peter Rieck said the German defense group’s board is closely aligned with the share price through its share ownership guidelines, which require executives to hold shares worth a multiple of their salary.

CEO Armin Papperger has bought about 13.8 million euros of stock since 2023, more than four times his requirement of roughly 3.3 million euros.

“The magnitude of these purchases remains a strong signal of conviction, particularly as he has invested materially more than needed,” wrote Rieck. “Overall, Papperger’s buying remains clearly positive, but this conviction is not yet mirrored across the full board.”

The picture among three newer board members is seen to be more mixed. Chief operating officer René Gansauge has acquired about 61% of his requirement, while the chief financial officer and chief human resources officer have reported no open market purchases. All three have until the end of 2028 to comply.

Rieck noted that shares awarded through the company’s long-term incentive programme also count toward those requirements, which softens the read-across. Since the 2024 tranche, half of the payout is delivered in shares.

Given recent share price weakness, the analyst said further open market purchases could provide a confidence signal, and he expects buying in the coming months.

Separately, mwb cut its third-quarter estimates because of limited visibility following the company’s pre-close update. It now forecasts revenue of 3.4 billion euros, down from 3.9 billion, and operating profit of 650 million euros, down from 740 million.