Why Tesla Could be Larger Than GM & Ford Combined by 2027

Trade Tesla Stock Your Capital Is At Risk
Ollie Martin
Updated: 3 Feb 2022

Key points:

  • Morgan Stanley expects Tesla revenue to outshine GM and Ford quicker than you might think
  • Tesla recorded year-on-year growth of 63%, whilst the broader market dropped 10%
  • Tesla appears well-posiitoned with share donors

Tesla dominates the EV market; we already know that. As companies turn towards the emerging market trend with hopes of securing a slice of the market share; competition is incredibly rife…or is it? How much does Tesla’s position outweigh the possibilities and approaches of burgeoning EV makers? Not just that, but how much are long-standing automobile favorites like GM and Ford under mounting pressure?

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In a recent note from Morgan Stanley, the firm expects Tesla revenues to be larger than GM and Ford combined in the next five years. Tesla is outperforming the market, and that’s where the long-term outlook derives from. 

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Tesla's U.S market share was 4% on year-on-year growth of 63%, whilst the broader market volume was down 10% – Morgan Stanley expects the full-year market share to stand at around 3.5%. Also, the average Tesla sold commands a price of $60,000, 30% above the US average price, implying, as Morgan Stanley points out, an adjusted ‘wallet share’ of 4.6%.

The firm estimate that Tesla's share of US wallet should reach 10% by 2025 and 13% by 2030. The firm also believes that Tesla is well-positioned with share donors, as movement in a low-growth auto market normally points to a group of share donors.

So, looking at GM, the company’s market share is expected to drop from 14.6% (2021) to 14% by 2025 and less than 12% by 2030. Similarly, Ford’s market share is expected to drop from 12.5% (2021) to just over 10% by 2030. With this information, Morgan Stanley expects Tesla’s revenue share to surpass GM by late 2026/2027.

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