ASML Holding (NASDAQ: ASML) reports third-quarter 2026 results on Wednesday, with a large step up in sales to deliver. The company makes the lithography machines chipmakers use to print circuit patterns on silicon, and it is listed on Euronext Amsterdam and Nasdaq. It has guided to net sales of €11.0 billion to €12.0 billion and a gross margin (the share of sales left after direct production costs) of 55% to 57%. There is no reliable consensus figure for the quarter, so the guidance is the yardstick.
When and what to expect
Chief executive Christophe Fouquet set out the guidance in July, alongside R&D costs of around €1.2 billion and SG&A (selling, general and administrative) costs of around €0.4 billion.
Against the €9.3 billion of second-quarter sales, the guided range implies growth of roughly 18% to 29% in one quarter. ASML also raised its 2026 outlook in July to net sales of €43 billion to €45 billion, from €36 billion to €40 billion, and to a gross margin of 54% to 56%, from 51% to 53%.
| Metric | Q3 2026 guidance | Q3 2025 actual | Q2 2026 actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales | €11.0-12.0bn | about €7.5bn | €9,326m |
| Gross margin | 55-57% | about 51.6% | 54.0% |
| Net income | No guidance | about €2.1bn | €2,918m |
| EPS (basic) | No guidance | €5.49 | €7.59 |
Even the low end of the sales guide sits well above both comparison columns, so the quarter has to show the jump rather than a modest improvement.
Track record
Sales have risen from €8,767 million in the first quarter of 2026 to €9,326 million in the second, and basic EPS from €7.15 to €7.59. Second-quarter sales and gross margin both came in above guidance, which Fouquet put down primarily to higher than expected Installed Base Management sales, meaning service, upgrades and options on machines already sold.
On EPS against consensus, ASML beat in October last year (€5.49 against €5.37), missed in January (€7.34 against €7.55) and beat in April (€7.15 against €6.62).
Into the print
ASML closed in Amsterdam at €1,575.80 today, down 1.6%, about 9.5% below the €1,741.00 high of the 30th of June. No source ties today’s fall to ASML specifically. It coincided with a sell-off in Korean technology shares, a reminder that AI-linked chip stocks can be volatile.
What to watch
- Net sales against the €11.0 billion to €12.0 billion guide. Second-quarter sales beat guidance, so delivery at or above the top of the range would extend that pattern.
- Gross margin against 55% to 57%, after 54.0% in the second quarter.
- The 2026 outlook. A move from the €43 billion to €45 billion net sales range would show how the year is tracking.
- 2027 capacity. ASML plans about 30% more low-NA EUV capacity (its standard extreme-ultraviolet machines, about 65 systems) and about 30% more DUV immersion capacity (older-generation lithography, about 130 systems), with a further 30% under investigation for 2028.
On demand, Fouquet said in July:
Our order intake remained extremely strong in the first half of the year.
Christophe Fouquet, ASML President and Chief Executive Officer
He added that customer commitments span the portfolio and give increased visibility into longer-term demand.
Read-across from TSMC
TSMC, the world’s largest contract chipmaker and a major ASML customer, reported record third-quarter revenue of NT$1.49 trillion last Thursday, up about 50% from a year earlier. Its full results and call follow on Thursday 15 October.
Scenarios
A beat would mean sales above €12.0 billion or a margin above 57%. The 2026 range and 2027 commentary would then be the next things to check.
An in-line result would mean sales and margin inside the guided ranges. With the guidance already known, the outlook would carry the weight.
A miss would mean sales below €11.0 billion or a margin below 55%.
Key times
- ASML Q3 2026 results: Wednesday, release time unconfirmed
- TSMC full Q3 results and call: Thursday 15 October
Glossary
Gross margin: the share of sales left after direct production costs.
Guidance: the range a company gives for its own future results.
Installed Base Management: service, upgrades and options on machines already sold.
