JPMorgan Q3 Earnings Preview: Dealmaking Guidance Sets the Bar Tomorrow
JPMorgan Chase reports third-quarter results tomorrow before the US open, with its shares below their summer high and a weak run for bank stocks. Management's own guidance sets the bar, not a revenue forecast.
JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), the largest US bank by market value, reports third-quarter results tomorrow at about midday UK time. The call with analysts follows at 1.30pm, an hour before Wall Street opens at 2.30pm.
The shares closed at $334.49 on Monday, 8.7% below the $366.50 high set in the week of the 10th of August and down about 6% over the past month. Analysts’ average price target is $372.14.
The earnings consensus, the average analyst forecast, is $5.94 a share. JPMorgan beat the forecast in three of the last four reported quarters, missing in the fourth quarter of 2025 with $4.63 against $4.82 expected.
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JPMorgan quarterly EPS against consensus, data-provider basis; Q2 2026 excludes the Visa gain in the reported $7.70. The Q3 2026 consensus is $5.94.
The second-quarter figure of $6.14 is on that same basis. The bank’s own reported $7.70 included a $4.6bn gain on Visa shares. There is no revenue consensus to measure against, so the guidance matters more.
On the 15th of September, co-President Doug Petno told a Barclays conference that investment banking fees and markets revenue, its trading income, should be up by the mid-to-high teens in the quarter. In the second quarter they rose 30% and 35% respectively. He described the deal pipeline this way:
We started this quarter with a strong pipeline that continues… It’s as high as we’ve seen in some time.
Doug Petno, JPMorgan
Net interest income, the gap between what the bank earns on loans and pays on deposits, is the other test. Management guided in July to about $96.5bn excluding markets, up from $95bn, and about $105.5bn in total.
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Hitting those targets implies about $24.77bn a quarter excluding markets in the second half. The second quarter delivered $23.68bn.
The backdrop is soft. Rising yields, deal-flow concerns and fears of AI disruption have been blamed for a sell-off that has left the KBW bank index more than 12% below its August peak. The 10-year Treasury yield is about 5.24%.
Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) and Citigroup (NYSE: C) also report tomorrow. Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) and Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) follow on Wednesday, the day of US inflation data.
The AskTraders Analyst Team features experts in technical and fundamental analysis, as well as traders specializing in stocks, forex, and cryptocurrency.
